Macro Early Warning Dashboard

CURRENT CONDITIONS

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Score — / 10

FORWARD RECESSION RISK · 6–12M

Early Warning Level

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Score — / 100

DETERIORATION SPEED

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Signals — / 7

7 indicators · requires 1M + 3M confirmation

RECESSION CONFIRMATION

—

Score — / 3

GLOBAL LIQUIDITY

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1M Change —

3M Change —

MACRO REGIME

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Risk score — / 10

RECESSION PROBABILITY

Low risk High risk

CREDIT STRESS LEVEL

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Based on delinquency rates, spreads & lending standards

LIQUIDITY REGIME

—

Liquidity index —

Fed balance sheet • Reverse repo • Treasury cash

CREDIT IMPULSE

—

3m vs 12m growth —

TRADABLE SIGNALS

Auto-generated from macro regime

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SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM WATCH

1M momentum alerts · 5 key indicators · separate from 7-indicator broad model

REGIME SHIFT PROBABILITY

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SIGNALS DETERIORATING

— / 5

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LABOR MARKET CONFIRMATION

Latest vs 13-week average — 3 labor signals

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SHIFT POSITIONING

Suggested positioning based on regime shift probability

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INDICATOR MONITOR

Z-score vs 10-year history

Indicator	Series	Latest	Chg vs Prev	3M Trend	Z-Score (10yr)
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HISTORICAL CHARTS

Last 2 years — weekly data

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